Geopolitical··Severity 6
Mamdani walks back pledge to arrest Netanyahu citing lack of authority
The New York City mayor instead called on US authorities to act on International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
Checking access status…