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Military··Severity 8

'Mykhailo Fedorov was fired for his successes in fighting corruption in the defense sector'

François Picard is pleased to welcome Daria Kaleniuk, Executive Director of the Anti-corruption Action Centre. Ukraine's wartime challenge is no longer only military, but institutional. Ms. Kaleniuk contends that battlefield success and democratic resilience are inseparable from deep reform of the defence establishment. While welcoming President Zelensky's replacement of the commander-in-chief with a younger, reform-oriented military leader, she argues that this represents only "half" of the necessary changes. The more consequential battle, in her view, concerns governance.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

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