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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Russian AI-assisted Geran UAV swarms manage to overload Ukrainian air defenses by 400%

In February 2026, cases were registered when a swarm of 20-30 UAVs overloaded Ukrainian air defenses by 300-400%

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

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