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Economic··Severity 7

US will cut aluminium tariffs to boost defence supply chain

Trump administration offering exemptions to companies that invest in American smelters

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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