Geopolitical··Severity 6
After meeting with Moscow, Washington reiterates wish to mediate Ukraine war
On the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila - the US and Russian foreign ministers met face-to-face. It's been more than a year since Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov last spoke. Washington is attempting to revive its mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine—so far without concrete results.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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