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Geopolitical··Severity 8

EU waters down Russia sanctions over fears China could seize key LNG assets

The EU has watered down its latest round of sanctions on Moscow after concluding that banning Greek companies from transporting Russian gas to third countries could hand strategically important shipping assets to China. To remove a Greek veto against the 21st package of measures aimed at hobbling Russia’s war machine, the bloc’s member states agreed to allow EU operators to continue transporting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to third countries for one year. Officials explained that China’s...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

68%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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