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Geopolitical··Severity 6

US oil refineries run at breakneck speeds as wars choke fuel supplies

High utilisation rates create risks of outages at a time when fuel prices are already up sharply

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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