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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Will the war on Iran affect ASEAN’s efforts to tackle regional issues?

Renewed fighting between the US and Iran has overshadowed the ASEAN gathering in Manila.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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