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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Chaotic Progress: European NATO’s Quest for Stronger Defense

In 2024, Max Bergmann wrote, “NATO Missed a Chance to Transform Itself,” where he argued NATO’s leadership needs to facilitate a strong European pillar of the alliance through structural reforms in European institutions. Two years later, we asked Max to revisit his arguments.Image: The White House via Wikimedia CommonsIn 2024, you argued NATO’s own leadership should facilitate a European pillar. Two years later, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament that anyone who thinks Europe can defend itself without the United States is dreaming, drawing public pushback from European leaders. Does that rift suggest NATO’s leadership is blocking progress on The post Chaotic Progress: European NATO’s Quest for Stronger Defense appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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44%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

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