Geopolitical··Severity 6
US attacks on southwestern Iran kill four people last night
Khuzestan Province’s governor Mohammad Reza Mavalizadeh, five more people were wounded
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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