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Military··Severity 8

South China Sea: Beijing and Manila trade blame on second day of Scarborough Shoal clashes

China-Philippine clashes continued near the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal for the second day on Friday, as Beijing started military drills in the South China Sea that are expected to run until the end of the month. “On July 24, the China Coast Guard took control measures in accordance with the law toward multiple Philippine vessels engaged in illegal activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction off Huangyan Island,” the coastguard said in a statement on Friday, referring to Beijing’s name...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

71%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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