Military··Severity 9
US-Iran conflict enters prolonged struggle over Strait of Hormuz
Nearly two weeks of US strikes and escalating threats against Iranian infrastructure have transformed the US-Iran confrontation from a series of retaliatory exchanges into a broader campaign of pressure, raising the prospect of a prolonged conflict marked by military escalation, diplomatic maneuvering and economic strain.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: CGTN World
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