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Military··Severity 9

Trump’s latest tariff tantrum unlikely to end well for the US

After devoting the first half of 2026 to an ineffectual, expensive and inconclusive military adventure in Iran, it seems US President Donald Trump is about to turn afresh to the wars he loves best – the tariff wars he still believes can make America great again. He can’t quite walk away from the war in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s refusal to capitulate has left Trump with an awkward obligation to fight on, despite the widespread unpopularity of the conflict, even among his base, and the need to...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

79%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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