Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukraine’s Cardboard Maidan Shows That the People Still Matter
Mass protests forced Zelensky to reverse course on the firing of a popular minister.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
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