Geopolitical··Severity 6
Europe Could Help Get Ukraine and Russia to the Negotiating Table
Only diplomacy will end this war. But the U.S.-led process has been episodic and inconsistent. As top Trump officials remain preoccupied with Iran, European governments have an opportunity to take the initiative.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
43%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: RAND
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