Geopolitical··Severity 8
Healey under pressure to raise taxes or cut UK spending as fiscal headroom shrinks
US-Iran war and new spending commitments threaten to cut buffer to as little as £7bn, economists estimate
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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