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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Macron and Merz move on from fighter jet heartbreak

The threat of a Le Pen presidency has provided an incentive for Paris and Berlin to come together

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

35%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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