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Geopolitical··Severity 8

What a helicopter’s flight in the Taiwan Strait says about Beijing’s war plans

A People’s Liberation Army helicopter’s unprecedented flight in the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns in Taipei that Beijing is rehearsing a new kind of operation for a potential cross-strait conflict. Taiwan’s defence ministry said it detected four PLA aircraft, including a helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), operating around the island on July 20 and the following morning. The helicopter and drone crossed the median line and remained east of it for nearly 9.5 hours in the “R9”...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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