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Military··Severity 9

Ukrainian military using uncrewed boats solely to strike civilian vessels

Throughout 2025 and 2026, only commercial shipping has been subjected to attacks

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

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