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Economic··Severity 7

Bond Traders on Edge as Risks of Fed Rate Hike This Week Mount

Bond traders enter the week seeing a better than one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates on Wednesday after flaring Middle East tensions lifted oil prices, boosting inflation worries and yields.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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