Geopolitical··Severity 6
Khamenei ties US-Iran peace deal to Israel ending attacks on Lebanon
Iranian supreme leader's intervention comes amid reports of halt to attacks and renewed diplomacy between US and Iran.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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