Geopolitical··Severity 9
Oil prices fall amid pause in US strikes on Iran to give 'space' for diplomacy
Oil prices fell on Monday amid a pause in strikes between the US and Iran boosted hopes for a return to a ceasefire and new talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The United States held fire over the weekend after 13 days of attacks on Iran, with Washington's UN envoy saying the US was "giving talks some space".
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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70%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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