Geopolitical··Severity 6
Video from Ukraine's National Guard shows strikes on Russian air defence systems on Kostiantynivka front
Fighters from Lasar's Group, a separate special-purpose unit within the National Guard of Ukraine, struck two Russian air defence systems on the Kostiantynivka front in Donetsk Oblast at the end of June.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
Checking access status…