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Geopolitical··Severity 9

US pauses attacks on Iran for a second straight day, Tehran does too

The United States paused its attacks on Iran for a second straight day Sunday and Tehran said it had done so too, as efforts continued to bring the countries back to negotiations on an interim ceasefire deal largely undermined by recent exchanges of fire. It was not clear why the US has paused after targeting Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure in a nearly two-week escalation sparked by Iran’s firing at ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

65%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

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