Geopolitical··Severity 6
Why Putin Will Escalate
The coming months will mark the most dangerous phase of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
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