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Economic··Severity 7

EU hesitates to target Irish plant accused of supplying Russia’s war industry

Officials fear that measures restricting alumina exports to Russia would threaten bloc’s aluminium supply chain

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

47%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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