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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Ukraine Says It Hit Major Rosneft Refinery in Russia’s Ryazan

Ukraine says it attacked a refinery owned by Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft PJSC overnight, its first strike on a major oil-processing facility in nearly two weeks.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

66%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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