Geopolitical··Severity 6
Trump says Iran will get a beating in retaliation for attack on bases in Jordan - 30 - Jul - 2026
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: home.nzcity.co.nz
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