Geopolitical··Severity 6
Polish media outlet releases footage of object identified by Ukraine as Russian Kh-101 falling in Lublin Voivodeship
A Polish media outlet has released CCTV footage showing the moment an object that violated the country's airspace on the night of 29-30 July fell in Lublin Voivodeship. The Ukrainian side says it was a Russian Kh-101 missile.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
39%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
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