Geopolitical··Severity 6
Is the U.S.-Iran War Expanding?
Violence is escalating, but it also follows familiar trends.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
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