Geopolitical··Severity 9
US carries out 'powerful' strikes on Iran after attacks on bases and regional allies
The renewed US bombardment ended nearly a week of relative calm and dimmed hopes for diplomacy, as the conflict widened with coordinated strikes in Iraq and missile attacks on Jordan.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
79%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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