Military··Severity 8
Airpower opened Iran’s skies. Why hasn’t it reopened Hormuz?
The hardest lesson of the Iran war for a US military “that has dominated the blue skies for generations,” two Stimson Center experts argue, “may be that the decisive contest has moved below.”
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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69%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Breaking Defense
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