Geopolitical··Severity 8
Missile that left crater deep inside Poland was probably Russian - Polish PM
The unidentified object caused a 10m-wide (33ft) crater a short distance from the village of Tarnawa Kolonia, about 100km from the border with Ukraine during a Russian attack on the city of Lviv.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
69%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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