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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Oil Holds Gain With Fresh US-Iran Attacks, Kazakh Exports Risk

Energy markets have been rocked by a fresh round of volatility this month, as investors navigated a short-lived pause in hostilities between Iran and the US, followed by renewed fighting. The conflict is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with Houthi rebels in Yemen threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, while Riyadh’s forces joined with the US to hit targets in Iraq that are linked to Tehran-backed militants. Paul Sankey, founder at Sankey Research, discusses the Houthi and Saudi escalation and how it's affecting energy. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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