Geopolitical··Severity 8
War on Iran: Phase II: Day 19
The US resumes bombing Iran, with a family of three killed in Qeshm Island.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
65%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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