Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukraine’s ex-defence minister blames procurement reforms for dismissal
Fedorov interview offers his most detailed account of sacking that triggered wave of protest
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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