Geopolitical··Severity 8
Why limited war with the US may suit Iran better than peace
Iran may believe it can control its conflict carefully enough to keep pressure on the US while avoiding an all-out war.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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