Geopolitical··Severity 8
Trump announces a deal for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, but many hurdles and uncertainty remain
US President Donald Trump announced a deal for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. This agreement involves carefully structured phases for winding down the conflict. Israeli forces will withdraw as disarmament is completed by Hamas. A new Palestinian police force will work with an international stabilization force. Reconstruction of Gaza is envisioned after the war concludes.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
53%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Economic Times
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