Geopolitical··Severity 8
Trump doubles down on threat to hit Iran ‘very hard’
US president’s remarks raise possibility Washington will launch new strikes
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
60%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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