Geopolitical··Severity 6
If it disarms, Hamas would 'take away Israel's rationale' to occupy Gaza
Hamas said on July 31 it agreed to a deal to end the war with Israel that included provisions addressing its weapons and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. US President Donald Trump announced the plan, calling it a critical step towards a new Palestinian government in Gaza. But what would that mean for the region, is it all that simple and why is it coming now? FRANCE 24's Matthew-Mary Caruchet tells us more.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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36%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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