Economic··Severity 5
Fighting breaks out in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame
Clashes near Sheraro mark one of the most serious threats yet to the fragile 2022 Pretoria peace deal.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
17%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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