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Economic··Severity 5

China’s next export is the world’s factory itself

China’s export boom is reaching its limits. The country’s next phase of growth will come not from shipping more goods abroad, but from exporting its factories, technologies and brands. China is running up against the limits of its old model. It is obvious as the economy looks increasingly K-shaped. Weak consumer confidence and a prolonged property slump continue to sap domestic demand, forcing manufacturers to rely ever more heavily on overseas markets. Exports have become the Chinese economy’s...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

22%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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