Geopolitical··Severity 6
At least 11 wounded by Colombia car bomb days before presidential election
President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella pledges to pursue harsh crackdown on rebel groups and criminal organisations.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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