Geopolitical··Severity 6
Iran says deal with Oman to manage shipping through Hormuz is close
Negotiations on agreement seen as critical to preventing the US-Iran war from escalating said to be in ‘final stages’
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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