Geopolitical··Severity 6
Israel kills five in Gaza despite Trump’s Hamas disarmament plan
Strikes hit Gaza homes after the US unveiled plan for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
39%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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