← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

Is China’s climate returning to that of Tang dynasty golden age? Experts warn of a trap

In China’s arid northwest, local state media in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region are celebrating a surge of rainfall in an area that usually averages 300mm (about 12 inches) per year. The rain belt moving northwards would bring “climate dividends”, the Ningxia Broadcasting News Centre said last month, promising that “loess soil will turn green and farming area will expand”. Reporting on a northward march of the 400mm precipitation line – the vital boundary that separates China’s arid grazing...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

44%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Checking access status…