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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Europe’s Dangerous Hesitation on Its Own Air Defense

Russia’s ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine pose an urgent question for NATO leaders.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

68%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Foreign Policy

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