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Military··Severity 8

Russia ramps up rhetoric but wants to avoid war with Nato, Western officials say

But they say Moscow will likely continue its "hybrid activity" against Nato members, short of direct military action.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: BBC World

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