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Natural··Severity 7

Could the China-Nepal disaster spur a safety rethink for a flagship rail project?

This week’s devastating floods on the China-Nepal border could be a catalyst for joint early-warning systems, particularly in relation to a proposed rail link between the countries. Rescuers were still struggling on Thursday to reach Gyirong Port in the Tibet autonomous region where a mudslide struck a day earlier, following flash floods from Nepal. The port is the region’s main foreign trade gateway, which handles a third of China’s trade with its neighbour. Gyirong is also one end of a...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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39%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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