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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry responds to Russian official's calls to bomb Ukraine: The only reason for Ukrainians to raise their hands is to give Russia the middle finger

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said State Duma Deputy Chairman Pyotr Tolstoy's calls to bomb Ukrainian cities should lead to an ICC arrest warrant.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda

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